Axsym Engineering Publications

Economic Forecasting

A new approach to economic forecasting is presented in the Economy Dynamics Series publications below to overcome limitations in the current use of semi-empirical functions correlated to historical datasets. Existing forecasting methods produce unknown errors. This requires intervention by forecasters to process differences between model predictions and actual data from the recent past. Because the intervention process is specific to individual forecasters, two forecasters using the same model can end up with very different forecasts. The new approach, called Economy Dynamics, does not extrapolate semi-empirical functions and thereby avoids unknown errors. This will enable forecasts to be validated against metrics at a regional level such as economic output, poverty levels and inflation and against the environmental impact of consumer behaviour, which is not currently possible.

Economy Dynamics Series

Paper 00 Towards a comprehensive macroeconomic simulation capability: Economy Dynamics. An overview of the Economy Dynamics methodology for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.

Paper 01 Modelling decision-making from population data: Household Income Forcing. Household financial decision-making can be captured from population data by using surrogate modelling methods. The probability of a given financial action can then be modelled under different household financial circumstances by replaying the surrogate model using the revised household financial circumstances.

Paper 02 The economy in one equation: The Macroeconomic Primitive. All financial interactions can be represented by a single equation defining the interdependency between income and expenditure of all consumers.

Economy Dynamics Essays

Essay 01 The emperor's economics: how can we prove economic theories? This essay considers why no economic theories can provide public understanding of the constraints on economic policy for addressing climate change and poverty. A new approach to economic research is presented and the potential for creating a framework to enable validation of economic forecasts is discussed. This will enable substantial structural change to the economic system and will open up economics to public questioning and enable public participation in political-economic debate.

Essay 02 The $8 trillion gamble: can we make economic policy fit for purpose? This paper explains why economic theories used by current policymakers are not fit for purpose and how to fix this. It discusses an approach to economic forecasting that can be validated, unlike current theories, separating politics from economic analysis. This will provide vital information to address climate change, mitigate current economic instability and tackle rising poverty by provably determining the changes necessary to current policies.

Software architecture for analytical processes

A new approach to the structure of software architecture to integrate analysis software and data in an adaptable and easy to upgrade framework is presented in the Teclab Series publications below. The new approach enables an analysts to select the simulation type, within a single analytical environment, and have full control over the algorithms and options used, without any duplication of software or methods across a department or company. The framework is truly modular, allowing alternative analysis methods to be interchangeable within the simulation, selected at set-up by the analyst. The architecture structure avoids the common problem of analytical tools becoming fragmented and prevents upgrade requirements encountering a dead-end. Implementing our architecture ensures there is no duplication of effort in an analytical processes between staff and that all analysts are working with the latest datasets, reduces data handling errors and reduces analysis turnaround times.

Teclab Series

Teclab 01 Handling data in automated analysis processes. Presenting a new central data management concept for storing varied data ontologies and ensuring rigorous data access control. Its application within Axsym’s software integration environment Teclab is demonstrated by a case study to automate a road network management analysis process.

Teclab 02 Automating analysis processes for complex modelling ontologies. Presenting a new analysis governance concept for intrinsically determining the model call sequence and managing data dependencies. Its application within Axsym’s software integration environment Teclab is demonstrated by a case study to automate local energy system design feasibility studies.